By Richard Macrae Gordon - Founder

Inflation: What Just Happened?

May 12, 2021

Inflation simply means the rate at which a selection of goods and services are going up in price. It's important because sudden changes in inflation, can signal trouble in the economy - and trouble for investors.

If inflation is low, prices of goods and services are only rising slowly over time. This means that the Federal Reserve and other central banks can keep interest rates low, which keeps it cheap for people and companies to borrow money - and generally supports the value of investments like stocks and real estate.

If inflation is high, the prices of goods and services are rising quickly. As you might expect, this means that the Federal Reserve and other central banks may be forced increase interest rates, since that is the primary policy lever they can pull to keep inflation under control. If that happens, this may mean that many types of investments would automatically be worth less than they currently are.

And here lies the problem: with the higher than expected inflation reported today (4.2% reported vs. 3.6% expected) the Federal Reserve and their counterparts in other countries may be forced to increase interest rates in the near term, or at least to slow some of the other measures they're using to stimulate the economy. If that turns out to be the case,

As you might have seen, the news of a higher than expected inflation figure has met with instant turmoil in financial markets. Some investors have been panicking about this possibility for some time - and have been selling off some of their more 'expensive' assets (particularly tech stocks, which were sold off even more aggressively today).

What happens next with inflation is yet to be seen, however there is hope in some circles that the most recent inflation reading will be the peak - and that it will begin to calm from this point. There is some reason to believe that this won't be the case though. Anecdotal evidence suggests that inflation might even be gathering pace. Whatever the case, the thing every investor on earth will be watching is how the Federal Reserve chooses to respond over the coming weeks and months. Practically everything hinges on that.

Richard

www.afinitiv.com

IMPORTANT INFORMATION:Afinitiv LLC is a United States Securities and Exchange Commission Registered Investment Advisor (RIA), formed under the laws of the State of Nevada USA, and duly registered under Section 203(c)(2)(A) of the Investment Advisor Act of 1940 (CRD: 305672). The following does not constitute a solicitation to invest in securities. All investments represent a risk of capital losses and all investors should consider whether an investment is appropriate for them, with regard to their objectives, required form and level of returns, tolerance for potential capital losses, liquidity and investment time frames, regardless of any advice they may have received. Afinitiv LLC does not guarantee investment returns, or the security of invested capital. Some investments may have less liquidity than others, which means that, under certain circumstances, an investor may not be able to redeem their investment for an extended period of time. Please click to view our Form ADV Part 2A and Privacy Policy. For more information, please contact: welcome@afinitiv.com. Please note that there may be tax implications and fees associated with transferring an investment balance from any account, to any other account and you should consult a tax professional if you are unsure of what this may mean for you. Any investment decisions made by us on your behalf are not based on a detailed understanding of your personal circumstances and accordingly may not be appropriate for you. Please consider this prior to opening an account with us. *Percentage fees charged by us are calculated on the basis of the amount of money invested with us. Investments in securities are not FDIC insured, not bank guaranteed and may lose value. *We do not charge additional fees of any sort, although additional costs (such as brokerage costs) may be incurred when investments are either bought, or sold (we do not benefit from any such fees). While we employ algorithmic, machine learning, artificial intelligence and other assistive technologies in our portfolio construction process, final investment decisions are made by human professionals...for now.
Customer Relationship Summary

(c) Copyright Afinitiv LLC 2023